Correlation between mobility in mass transport and mortality due to COVID-19: A comparison of Mexico City, New York, and Madrid from a data science perspective

Abstract

Abstract In most big cities, public transports are enclosed and crowded spaces. Therefore, they are considered as one of the most important triggers of COVID-19 spread. Most of the existing research related to the mobility of people and COVID-19 spread is focused on investigating highly frequented paths by analyzing data collected from mobile devices, which mainly refer to geo-positioning records. In contrast, this paper tackles the problem by studying mass mobility. The relations between daily mobility on public transport (subway or metro) in three big cities and mortality due to COVID-19 are investigated. Data collected for these purposes come from official sources, such as the web pages of the cities local governments. To provide a systematic framework, we applied the IBM Foundational Methodology for Data Science to the epidemiological domain of this paper. Our analysis consists of moving averages with a moving window equal to seven days so as to avoid bias due to weekly tendencies. Among the main findings of this work are: a) New York City and Madrid show similar distribution on studied variables, which resemble a Gauss bell, in contrast to Mexico City, and b) Non-pharmaceutical interventions dont bring immediate results, and reductions to the number of deaths due to COVID are observed after a certain number of days. This paper yields partial evidence for assessing the effectiveness of public policies in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.