Projection of Diabetic Patients Retinopathy in Hidalgo State-México, through 2030

Abstract

Purpose To estimate the progression of diabetic retinopathy (DR) using a dynamic mathematical model after a comprehensive dilated eye exam at a primary care facility. Procedures: A dynamic model was built for the projection of DR cases in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary health care facilities in Hidalgo, Mexico. Data were collected in 2010. A blood sample was taken after an overnight fast to determine glucose levels and ophthalmologists performed a comprehensive dilated eye exam with a portable ophthalmoscope (direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy). We used a dynamic model to estimate patients with DM. The model includes demographic effects (population growth and migration), and considers intervals of one year, starting in 2010 and ending in 2030. A difference equation system was used. Main Findings: The prevalence of DR in 2010 was 33.3% (29.9% NPDR and 3.4% PDR). For 2030, if these conditions remain the same, an increase of 116.3% is expected. This means a general prevalence of 72.1% in this population. Conclusions: An alarming increment of DR was estimated for 2030. To avoid this complication in people living with diabetes, preventive policies are needed and the care of diabetic patients in primary health facilities must be strengthened. This will yield a lower cost since patients will not require surgery