The Mexican Cycle of Suicide: A National Analysis of Seasonality, 2000 2013

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Suicide is a complex multifactorial phenomenon with growing importance to public health. An increase in its occurrence has been observed in Mexico over the past 10 years. The present article analyzes the secular trend in suicide at the national level between the years 2000 2013. MATERIALS METHODS: All suicides during the study period (n = 64,298, of which 82.11% were men) were characterized using a spectral decomposition of the time series a wavelet analysis to evaluate the effect of seasonal changes, type of area (urban versus rural) sex. RESULTS: A seasonal pattern was observed with statistically significant cycles every 12 months, where peaks were identified in May but only for men in urban zones as of the year 2007. In addition, specific days of the year were found to have a higher frequency of suicides, which coincided with holidays (New Year, Mother's Day, Mexican Independence Day Christmas). CONCLUSION: A wavelet analysis can be used to decompose complex time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of this technique to the study of suicides in developing countries. This analysis enabled identifying a seasonal pattern among urban men in Mexico. The identification of seasonal patterns can help to create primary prevention strategies, increase the dissemination of crisis intervention strategies promote mental health. These strategies could be emphasized during specific periods of the year directed towards profiles with a higher risk.