Challenges of the epidemiological economic burdens associated with hypertension in middle income countries: evidence from Mexico

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In order to identify the challenges resulting from hypertension in a middle income country, this study has developed probabilistic models to determine the epidemiological economic burden of hypertension in Mexico. METHODS: Considering a population base of 654,701 reported cases of adults with hypertension, we conducted a longitudinal analyses in order to identify the challenges of epidemiological changes health care costs for hypertension in the Mexican health system. The cost evaluation method used was based on the instrumentation technique. To estimate the epidemiological changes for 2015 2017, probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box Jenkins technique. RESULTS: Regarding changes in expected cases for 2015 vs. 2017, an increase of 12 % is expected (p < 0.001). Comparing the economic impact in 2015 versus 2017 (p < 0.001), there is a 23 % increase in financial requirements. The total amount for hypertension in 2016 (US dollars) will be $6306,685,320 Of these, $ 2990,109,035 will be as direct costs $ 3316,576,285 as indirect costs. CONCLUSIONS: If the risk factors care models remain as they are currently in the health system, the financial consequences will have a major impact on the out of pocket users, following in order of importance, on social security providers on public assistance providers.